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Argentina favourites for World Cup glory, says simulation

08 June 2026

World Cup

Lionel Messi’s Argentina are the most likely team to win the 2026 World Cup, but no single nation dominates the field the way previous champions have.

That is the verdict of a University of Reading simulation created by economist Professor James Reade, who modelled every match of the 48-team tournament 10,000 times to produce probability estimates for each nation.

The model gives Argentina a 24% chance of lifting the trophy, with Spain (13%) and France (12%) close behind. Portugal and England are joint fourth, each with a 9% chance of going all the way. Scotland, making a rare appearance at a World Cup finals, are ranked 30th of the 48 nations and have a 70% chance of making it through to the Last 32.

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Professor James Reade said: "Argentina come out on top, but what stands out most from this simulation is how tight it is at the summit. France and Spain are virtually indistinguishable in the model, and England aren't far behind either. It has been 60 years since England last lifted the trophy, and the simulation suggests football could finally be coming home.

"What also jumps out is the contrast between sides. Germany's defensive numbers are notably weaker than in previous cycles, while Portugal have one of the strongest attacking ratings in the whole field. The model goes beyond simple rankings by estimating each team's attacking and defensive strength individually, which gives a much richer picture of who is likely to go deep in the tournament."

How the model works

Professor Reade's model estimates each nation's attacking and defensive strength from all international matches played since January 2023. Some nations have played as few as 36 matches in that period, others up to 100. The model accounts for this imbalance and also builds in a home advantage factor for matches not played at neutral venues.

For each simulated match, the model generates expected goals for both teams and draws outcomes from a statistical distribution to determine the result. It then works through the full group stage, applying the tournament's tie-breaking rules, before simulating the entire knockout bracket, including extra time and penalties, to find a winner. That process is repeated 10,000 times to produce the final probability estimates.

The 2026 tournament is the first to be shared across three host nations, the USA, Mexico and Canada, and the model offers a mixed picture for all three.  Mexico rank 27th, with the USA in 24th. Canada are 25th. None of the three host nations are given any realistic chance of winning the tournament.

Practice penalties now 

One way teams could earn more points is by converting penalties - but previous research co-published by the University of Reading found that sometimes footballers let their egos get in the way of success. 

 

Professor James Reade and his colleagues analysed 536 penalty kicks from UEFA competitions, finding that players are too cautious when taking penalties. While aiming for the top corners is statistically more likely to result in a goal, kick takers instead choose safer areas where goalkeepers have a better chance of making saves. 

 

The study revealed that for every 100 penalties, this cautious approach puts 3 more shots on target but costs players 1 goal they would have scored with riskier corner shots.

 

Read: Penalty-takers prioritise perception, winning study suggests

Notes to editors:

Professor James Reade is available for interview. Contact the University of Reading Press Office on 0118 378 5757 or pressoffice@reading.ac.uk

Full rankings: 

Rank Country Win % Finalist % Semi % QF % Last 16 % Last 32 %
1 Argentina 24 27 45 60 72 98
2 Spain 13 15 32 47 62 99
3 France 12 14 35 51 73 95
4 Portugal 9 11 26 45 64 94
5 England 9 11 29 43 67 98
6 Colombia 5 7 18 33 52 85
7 Brazil 5 6 24 42 63 98
8 Netherlands 3 4 17 33 48 89
9 Belgium 3 4 15 35 65 94
10 Croatia 2 4 14 28 53 95
11 Morocco 2 3 14 30 52 93
12 Germany 2 3 15 30 62 98
13 Uruguay 2 3 14 24 41 96
14 Japan 2 2 12 25 41 82
15 Switzerland 2 2 12 23 62 97
16 Ecuador 1 2 10 23 50 91
17 Norway 1 2 10 20 46 89
18 Austria 1 1 8 19 38 91
19 Senegal 1 1 7 18 37 75
20 Algeria 0 1 4 11 30 71
21 Iran 0 0 4 15 42 80
22 Paraguay 0 0 3 11 31 65
23 Australia 0 0 3 10 30 62
24 USA 0 0 3 14 40 78
25 Canada 0 0 4 14 46 91
26 Egypt 0 0 3 11 36 74
27 Mexico 0 0 4 17 46 84
28 Turkey 0 0 2 9 30 69
29 Ivory Coast 0 0 2 7 27 73
30 Scotland 0 0 2 8 25 70
31 Czech Republic 0 0 2 10 36 78
32 Uzbekistan 0 0 1 3 11 38
33 DR Congo 0 0 1 5 14 49
34 Tunisia 0 0 1 5 13 51
35 Sweden 0 0 1 5 13 50
36 South Korea 0 0 2 7 27 68
37 South Africa 0 0 0 3 13 44
38 Iraq 0 0 0 0 3 14
39 Curaçao 0 0 0 0 1 9
40 Haiti 0 0 0 0 1 8
41 Ghana 0 0 0 1 5 36
42 Bosnia-Hz. 0 0 0 2 13 49
43 New Zealand 0 0 0 1 6 24
44 Cape Verde 0 0 0 1 5 30
45 Qatar 0 0 0 0 4 26
46 Jordan 0 0 0 0 1 12
47 Saudi Arabia 0 0 0 0 3 15
48 Panama 0 0 0 1 4 27

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